PBJ was developed around the reality of today's volatile games. The casinos are making the game tougher, so we have to employ innovative approaches in order to survive those games. Recognizing the strengths and drawbacks of all the systems I have been involved with, combined with my own analysis and playing experience, I have developed a cultivated blend of advanced card play techniques and betting tactics, designed to negotiate Blackjack in a low risk, yet exploitive manner. Our program is for serious players who wish to play Blackjack as a long term business. The success of the long term is achieved via short term goals, which include table win locks, stop losses, as well as, trip win locks and stop losses. We are extremely concerned with protecting our bankroll and preventing excessive "Give Back" to the casino. These concerns among others are automatically protected by the PBJ betting options, rules and table departure criteria. We have to recognize the (6) main ingredients of successful blackjack play. They include money management, table selection, card play, betting , table departure and of course, discipline.
Regarding table selection ... We are trained to appraise blackjack table conditions as they exist. Each table must present an investment opportunity from our advanced point of view. We are trained and prepared to enter games that exhibit player favorable conditions, where it is apparent that "basic strategy" is responsible for player winning activity. By the same token, we are also prepared to enter tables that lack "basic strategy" traits, but appear to be playable from an advanced angle of attack.
The casinos have drastically tampered with card flow randomness, which traditional "basic strategy" is reliant upon. Ever wonder why the casinos sell "basic strategy" books in the casino gift shops and why they offer "basic strategy" lessons on the floor of the casino? Are they training us to beat them, or are they training us to beat ourselves? I think you know the answer. In order to negotiate today's conditions, which are stacked against us, we have to know when to play straight "basic strategy" and when to deviate from "basic strategy," as a means to increase our hands won percentage and to help defuse one of the casino's built - in advantages. However, we must recognize that even with advanced card play capabilities, games can be so dealer strong that even our good card sense can be overcome by the casino, despite the fact that we know why we are losing. Fortunately, I have built in safe guards which essentially protect us from over staying enticing games where we are calling the cards, but losing anyway.
PBJ betting tactics were designed around game volatility and those adverse radical changes that occur. Betting is based on the premise that "nothing good lasts forever" and "nothing bad lasts forever." Therefore, all betting tactics and options anticipate game break-downs. Never-the-less, the betting tactics were also designed to address game type conditions as they exist and change. Our advantage is created due to the fact that we can not only exploit games where we tend to be winning more hands than the dealer, but we can even exploit games where we are alternating wins and losses with the dealer. PBJ utilizes (2) main betting themes. Both involve mathematical common sense and logic. These betting methods address the streaking game and the choppy game. The ultra conservative section of the manual illustrates the "up as you win" scheme, utilizing mode levels of betting. This mild up as you win involves safeguard modes which are staggered in between the bet increments, as a means to assure table lock wins, upon game breakdowns and to minimize losses upon table departures. The up as you win method contained in the expert section is slightly more aggressive than the ultra conservative section, yet still remains within a low risk level. There are no safeguard modes involved with the expert method. It's a straight up as you win and pull type betting scheme. Once the player graduates to the expert section it is incumbent of the player to get a little more aggressive, in an effort to get more money out faster during player favorable sections of the shoe.
PBJ uses a safe progression designed to address the common "choppy" back and forth type games. Recognize that our rules of table departure will automatically limit losses in a bad game , where no advantage is working and prevent excessive "give back" in good games that break-down. We train the player to recognize when to switch from one betting tactic to the other in order to swing with changing conditions that occur throughout the shoe. In addition to our (2) primary betting schemes, we have clever betting tactics involving the 1st base position and an optional card counting enhancement which can be incorporated into the mainstream of PBJ. All PBJ betting is designed to minimize losses in bad games and safeguard table wins in good games, by win locking and preventing excessive "give back." The manual details betting guides for different size bankrolls and base betting units. As mentioned earlier, our table departure criteria is designed to minimize losses and assure table wins, by preventing excessive "give back." We are trained to recognize when our entry into a game ruins the game, when we fall into a poor player zone and when a good game has come to an abrupt end. Remember, we are not there to wage a war against a dealer; we are there to win more money than we started with. If a dealer is strong we have to move on. That's one of the realities of casino blackjack. We can leave the table, because we have a choice. The dealer can't!
PBJ teaches casino insight so that the player is aware of what he is up against. We cover variables created by the casino and enlighten the player as to how to recognize those variables and deal with them. PBJ also teaches the player to recognize variables which are created by other blackjack players as well. We learn how to use other players to our advantage and when to recognize that other players become a hindrance to our intentions. PBJ also touches upon casino marketing, gimmicks and proper utilization of "comps."
Now, Let's talk about the few good tables in casino. . .
For starters, we have to recognize that a good table exists because basic strategy is working in that particular game for those particular players. In those games most of the players are winning, the dealer is doing her share of breaking , the players are receiving good double down cards and the game is stabilized. We can still find those types of game, but we have to seek them out. From a PBJ perspective, when those type games are located, we enter them and lean towards "basic strategy" card play. However, provided that we can get into the game, one of three things will occur ... We will either disrupt a fragile player favorable bias, we will not disrupt the game or we may fall into a poor player zone. Having a PBJ background, many times we will be able to adjust to a game change, via our advanced card play capabilities and betting tactics.
So, how do we handle Basic Strategy?
We've included a "Fundamental Strategy" chart in the manual for several reasons. First of all, the chart is just slightly more conservative than traditional "Basic Strategy" charts. The chart is needed so that the novice player, as well as the experienced player, can use it as a fundamental guideline to making flexible card play decisions. I consider "Fundamental Strategy" as a transitional mode of card play , if you will. In other words, we employ fundamental strategy as a safe strategy, until we deem the game a "basic strategy" game. We are also trained in how to fluctuate from traditional standards of card play to flexible approaches as we see fit in our round to round analysis.
PBJ recognizes team play as playing blackjack at it's highest level. We have tactics designed for partner play and elaborate tactics which can be utilized by larger teams. We are also continuing research on these two very powerful concepts and will be doing seminars solely on team play.
Concerning Head On Play, PBJ details the advantages and the perils of taking on a dealer "head on." We are trained to recognize head on opportunities, create opportunities and when to back off. We can win a lot of money quick and we can lose a lot of money quick during head on play. So, we have to have an idea of why a dealer is standing alone at a table. Especially, a low stakes table, when the casino is crowded.
Let's move on with a discussion on the problems associated with contemporary multiple deck blackjack conditions . . . First, the problem with "BASIC STRATEGY" ... Today's knowledgeable player must recognize that basic strategy was the first mathematical system devised for the game of blackjack. However, basic strategy was developed years ago by mathematicians and it was developed with a reliance upon card flow randomness. What makes matters worse is that basic strategy was also devised for only single deck play.
As you know, the good card counters put a dent in the industry years ago, so the casinos had to take action against their attackers. They took measures to subvert the mathematics of basic strategy and proficient card counting techniques and betting. As a result, the casinos turned to the multiple deck game and hired consultants to make their games harder to beat. Now for the problem ... How many times were you in a game when either you or someone at the table made a remark like "Where are the (10's) and doesn't this dealer ever break? What you were experiencing at that time was the result of non random card flows and their adverse impact on straight basic strategy card play.
"THE CARD MANUFACTURING PROCESS"...
I'll break down the process. It starts with the order in which new cards are packaged. When a dealer opens a table or new cards are brought in to a table, the dealer opens the boxes and spreads the new cards out and employs a WASH which is nothing more than a circular motioned mixing of the cards. Actually the cards don't get mixed up much at all. After the wash, the dealer will shuffle the cards and begin to deal. Now, for purpose of illustration, visualize (7) players at the table. And all or most of those players will be straight basic strategy players. This is where basic strategy and the manner in which the dealer picks up the players' cards becomes an element involved in the card clump manufacturing process. The players hit their stiffs and get a high card and break. The dealer then picks up the player's cards, in break card clump segments and places them in the discard holder.
To make matters worse, when several players and the dealer all have two card (20) pushes, which are nothing more than wasted tens, all those tens are scooped up by the dealer and placed together in the discard holder in a clump of high cards. This process keeps perpetuating itself from shoe to shoe and the end result is overly clumped shoes. The insufficient shuffling techniques inhibit card movement, therefore, randomness is tampered with. And we need randomness for successful basic strategy card play. That is why full tables seldom create favorable player conditions. The more decks used, the fuller the table, straight basic strategy card play and the insufficient shuffling techniques, all stack the cards against you the player. So, how do we overcome the problem or should I say how do we, use the casino advantage against them? The answer is flexible strategy card play; not strict basic strategy card play. In effect, if you can take an advantage away from the casino, then you are creating an advantage for yourself. That doesn't mean that you should become cocky and develop an infallible attitude.
The course teaches you to respect situations where your advantage is not working, especially, when a dealer is just too strong. However, our table departure criteria protects us from over staying poor games. Now please don't get me wrong. Just because we may have to deviate from basic strategy on many occasions doesn't mean that we will completely disregard basic strategy.
How many times have you seen this situation ... The dealer shows the low up card and the players double and stand on their stiffs and ultimately the dealer ends up pulling a 5 card 21 and whacks everyone at the table. Keep in mind that the casinos allow the double down and split options for a reason. This is a very frustrating situation for the players. We show the player when to make QUALITY double - downs and when not to double. Advanced card play knowledge arms the player with skills that can negotiate the less desirable tables where basic strategy appears to be fruitless.
Anyone who has been playing for awhile recognizes that the shoe game seems far more difficult over the last several years. Dealers appear to win more than their fair share of the hands with uncanny luck. Actually, luck has nothing to do with it. The game has changed radically. Beating it requires a radically changed playing method that corresponds to, and addresses, those game changes. The basis of the casino's new Blackjack game is non-random cards. One of the successes of our method is capitalizing on non-random cards. We fight fire with fire. We fight Blackjack with PRECISION BLACKJACK.
IF BOTH DEALERS AND PLAYERS BREAK LESS, THE CHANCE THAT THEY WILL BOTH BREAK ON THE SAME HAND IS GREATLY REDUCED. That's the secret of PRECISION BLACKJACK. It's not an opinion. It is a pure and simple mathematical fact. This fact greatly reduces the house odds and gives the edge to the player, IF HE KNOWS HOW TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT. IS BASIC STRATEGY WRONG ? OH MY GOD HOW COULD ALL THOSE BOOKS BE WRONG??? ARE THE CASINOS BROKE? WHY DO THEY OFFER FREE BASIC STRATEGY LESSONS IN THE CASINOS? ARE THEY TRAINING YOU TO BEAT THEM? OR ARE THEY TRAINING YOU TO BEAT YOURSELF ??? That is precisely what I am saying. I do not ask you to take my word for this. Solid proof is in the manual.
WHY DO MOST PLAYERS LOSE? Let's look at how the game was designed. The closest to 21 wins. Since that is true for both dealer and player, the design was for both to win half the hands. That makes it even. But, we had to have a house advantage so the casino could make a living. We said, O.K., when you both break, the dealer wins. For the moment, let's forget all of the other rules, since they all favor the player.
By design, we should win half of the hands and the casino's only advantage should be the "break-push" rule. Now, I want you to think about the last game you lost. Did you lose because of the break-push rule? Think about it. No. You lost because the dealer won more hands than you, didn't she? The break-push rule didn't have much to do with it, did it? Now think about this: How could you lose more than half the hands when the object for you is exactly the same as it is for the dealer? And, you are allowed to play your cards any way you please while the dealer must play her cards one way and one way only. THINK about it How could you lose? It's not the rules that beat you, is it? It's not the game that beat you, is it? It isn't luck, is it? Believing in luck is like believing in leprechauns. There is only one thing left, isn't there? YOU LOST BECAUSE YOU DIDN'T ALTER YOUR CARD PLAY DURING AREAS WHERE BASIC STRATEGY CARD PLAY FAILED. Sorry to be so blunt, but it takes a little force to overcome the mind set you have been subjected to.
WHY IS PRECISION BLACKJACK - BETTER? First, let's look at just three of the reasons:
1) PRECISION BLACKJACK is better because it addresses the real situation at hand, not some fantasy game that exists only in Blackjack books, computer programs and in the minds of some "experts"
2) PRECISION BLACKJACK uses plain common sense. It's the thinking man's approach to Blackjack. Once you have had some training and practice, you will find that your mind is far more agile and reliable than some rigid unthinking chart. Think about this. The entire OLD BLACKJACK approach can be reduced to a single piece of paper. If that was all it took, there would be no Blackjack.
3) The casinos handed us a powerful edge on a silver platter; non-random cards. How can that help us? Because high cards follow high cards and low cards follow low cards more than they randomly should. Therefore, whenever we bet that they won't repeat, it is a bad bet. So, we bet that they will repeat. We are right far more often than we are wrong. How's that for poetic justice.
HOW DOES PRECISION BLACKJACK WORK? The approach can be divided into two parts: CARD PLAY and BETTING. Let's take them one at a time. CARD PLAY: Let's forget about soft hands , double downs, and splits for the moment. Once we have done this, card play decisions can be reduced to hands of 12 through 16 only. This is because there is nothing to be decided for a hand less than 12; we automatically hit. Likewise, there is nothing to be decided for hands greater than 16; we stand. OBJ utilizes the basic strategy chart to make the 12 to 16 card play decisions.
The chart looks at only one piece of information to make this all important decision - the dealer's up card. Once they assume that the cards are random, which they aren't, the up card is all that they have to go on. Recognize that the up card alone is nearly useless for accurately assessing the dealer's hand. This is because, with random cards, the chance that the dealer's hole card is high is exactly the same as the chance that it is low. Never-the-less, basic strategy assumes that the dealer has a ten in the hole. This means that they are right only 30.8 % of the time, or once in 3.25 hands, because that is the ratio of tens in a deck of cards. We will learn later that they are actually right far less than that. When we take the time to really contemplate it, we can't help but come to the conclusion that basic strategy is too strict to form the basis of a reliable winning approach to effective card play. Statistics verify this conclusion. While basic strategy may fare well in random, single deck games, it only wins about 40-42% of the hands in the modern shoe game. This is totally inadequate for winning play. By contrast, we appreciate the fact that the cards are not random and assess separate pieces of information to make the 12 - 16 card play decision far more accurately.
PRECISION BLACKJACK achieves a highly accurate perception of the dealer's hole card, as well as, the player's and dealer's hit cards. PRECISION BLACKJACK then combines these pieces of evidence with the tens ratio of the hand being played as well as the historical dealer break ratio in the game being played. These sources of information are assessed to make a highly enlightened play decision. The same information is then used, very effectively, to identify high percentage double down, split and insurance opportunities.
BETTING: OBJ utilizes card counting for the betting side of their game. We contend that card counting is not only beyond the ability of most players, it is worse than useless in today's shoe game because it directs the player to place high bets on more dealer favorable hands than player favorable hands. PRECISION BLACKJACK utilizes the far more effective tens ratio monitoring method, which tells the player if the next round is favorable or not. It also tells the player what game type he is in and the most effective betting strategy for that game type.
Is today's game winnable? Look the dealer wins more than half the hands by simply hitting to 17. (We call that "dealer strategy"). We can play our cards any way we want! If the dealer can win by playing mindless dealer strategy, think about what we can do by using our intelligence to play optimum strategy! Think about what we can do by playing the edge that the casinos unwittingly gave us. And that's not the half of it. Add to that the best table selection strategy, the best insurance strategy, the best double down strategy, the best money and time management strategies and the most enlightened betting strategy the game has ever seen. Add hit and hole card anticipation. And there is more. So, is today's game winnable? YOU BET IT IS!
'If the cards were random, all games would be the same.'
MATHEMATICAL PROOF: Let's walk through the math together and then you tell me if clumping exists or not. Let's look at an ordinary six deck game with the cut off card placed a quarter of the way up. How many cards will be dealt? 52 cards X 6 decks X .75 - 1 burn card 233 Now, as the cards are dealt, how often should tens fall on a random basis? There are 4 tens in every 13 cards. Therefore tens will fall, on average, 4 times every 13 cards, or 13 / 4, or once for every 3.25 cards dealt. How often will two tens fall in a row? Easy. 3.25 X 3.25 or once every 10.56 cards. Three tens in a row is 3.25 X 3.25 X 3.25 or once every 34.3 cards. Four in a row works out to once every 111 cards dealt. Five tens in a row will randomly occur once in every 363 cards dealt. Let's stop there for a minute. The math purists are going to note that as consecutive tens fall, the normal tens ratio (1 in 3.25) will change slightly for each 10 dealt. They are right. The corrected random occurrence of 5 tens in a row is actually once in every 390 cards dealt. All I did here is subtract one card and one ten for each 10 dealt and divide to obtain the corrected tens ratio. The corrected math looks like this. 3.25 x 3.274 x 3.298 x 3.322 x 3.348 = 390. The point here is that 390 cards is a lot more than the 233 cards dealt in a six deck shoe. Therefore, we should only see 5 tens in a row once every 1.67 shoes. Then why do we actually see them far more often than that? Why indeed, if the cards are really random? Not convinced?
Let's go further. Let's put six players in our 6 deck game. Now let's see what the real odds are of achieving that all too common solid ten push, if the cards were really random. To achieve our solid ten push all around, we will need a minimum of 14 tens in a row (six players plus the dealer X two cards = 14). We merely continue our math progression as before, adjusting the tens ratio as we go, until we have multiplied the corrected random tens expectancy 14 times. If you take five minutes to do this on an ordinary calculator, it works out that 14 tens in a row will randomly occur once in every 29,531,367 cards dealt. So, you see, the casinos are right: "Oh well can expect that with random cards". What they don't tell you is that you should expect it only once in every 30 million cards dealt!!! So, exactly how often is that? Well, if we divide the 29,531,367 cards needed by the number of cards dealt in a six deck shoe (233), we find we can readily expect a solid ten push once in every 126,744 shoes. At six shoes per hour, we can count on seeing one every 21,124 hours of play. If you were a full time pro and spent 40 hours a week in the casinos, 50 weeks a year, and you spent a quarter of your time at the tables, you would get to see a six player, solid ten push every 42.2 years. That's what would happen IF THE CARDS WERE RANDOM. Yet, we see them all the time. I don't know how many I have seen, but it's more than a thousand. So, how are the casinos going to explain this away? They will probably tell me I must be 42,000 years old. Come on guys! No clumping? Let me tell you about the three hole in ones I had yesterday. There are a couple of flaws in our math.
The math purist will note that the dealer usually deals through the cutoff card. However, a 14 card solid ten clump must begin at least 14 cards in from the last card dealt. So, 233 cards dealt is about right. Our math determining the odds of 14 tens in a row is correct. But, 14 tens in a row certainly does not guarantee a solid ten push. Recognize that we would only get a solid ten push when the first of the 14 tens happens to fall as the first player's first card. This will occur only about one time in twenty. Therefore, the odds of achieving a solid ten push from 14 tens in a row are more than one in thirty million. They are much closer to one in six hundred million! But, the point remains the same. We should never see solid ten pushes with random cards. But, we do see them! Therefore, how can the cards be random?
MORE TELLTALE SIGNS OF CLUMPING: Most letters and email tell me that is completely credible because they've seen it all before. Maybe you have noticed some of these phenomenon DEALER TWENTY ONES You don't suppose this has anything to do with low card clumps, do you? Maybe the dealers are just getting luckier.
GAME CHARACTERISTICS: Now you have to admit that there are good games and there are bad games. Even a beginner soon realizes this sometime during his first day in a casino. All table selection strategies are based on the fact of game characteristics. Think about it! If all games were random, there would be no game characteristics. That's what random means: without patterns; without characteristics. If the cards were random, all games would be the same.
SHUFFLE TACTICS: Why do casinos change their shuffle? Isn't a random shuffle a random shuffle? If the cards are random, why wouldn't all casinos use the same shuffle and never change it? You don't suppose they are trying to influence the game, do you? They would never try to control the amount of clumping, would they? How could they, if the cards are random? LOW CARD CLUMPS: Recognize that clumping the high cards effectively clumps the low cards. Where else could they be? Remember those rounds with no tens? Or maybe two or three or more rounds in a row? 'Oh well, you can expect that with random cards.
DEALER BREAK SUBVERSION: The more the cards are clumped, the less the dealer breaks. The "stand plays" (stand with less than 17) and the "double" and "split" plays constitute the very essence of basic strategy. All of these critical plays were computed against the risk factor generated by a normal dealer break ratio of one dealer break for every 3.5 rounds played. Think about it. When was the last time you saw a dealer break that often? When the casino tampers with this ratio, they destroy the odds of the critical plays of basic strategy! Here's how it's done: The more the cards are clumped, the greater the incidence of both high and low card clumps. That is, after all, the definition of clumping. When the cards are dealt out of a high card clump of nines, tens, and aces, THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. Think about it! She never even hits, let alone breaks. Even if we add eights to the high card clumps, the dealer can only break on the rare occasion of a pair of eights. Likewise, when the cards are dealt out of a low card clump of ace through five, THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. Likewise, when the dealer's hit cards are dealt out of a similar low card clump, THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. She must draw a card higher than five to break. If we add sixes, the dealer can only break on the rare occasion when she gets a 16 and is unlucky enough to draw a six. Note that I listed three separate common shoe game situations where THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. Together, they cover a significant portion of the shoe. Remember those games where the dealer never broke? Now you know why. Yet basic strategy DEPENDS on the dealer breaking one out of 3.5 hands. It's not going to happen, is it?
STAND HAND SUBVERSION: THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK during an ace through five low card clump. Yet, that is precisely when basic strategy says STAND and let the dealer break; when, in fact, THE DEALER CANNOT BREAK. Therefore, The basic strategy player cannot win a single hard hand during ace through five low card clumps. In fact, he can't even get a push! Conversely, the dealer will win every hand during the low card clumps AGAINST EVERY BASIC STRATEGY PLAYER. Sixes do not significantly improve this dismal situation. Perhaps you are beginning to see that basic strategy was never meant for the shoe game. The shoe game IS a different animal and it DOES require a different approach.
WHY NO RIGID STRATEGY WORKS IN THE SHOE GAME: We can define a rigid strategy as any strategy that charts rigid plays against the dealer up\card. While basic strategy is the original, other rigid strategies have been created in attempts to adapt basic strategy to the shoe game, While some may have shown improvement, none of them actually worked. None of them produced bottom line winners in the shoe game. The problem is that, by its nature, no rigid strategy can defeat the shoe game.
Here's why: Any rigid strategy requires a constant target to shoot at; a constant target like random cards. Clumped cards present a moving or variable target. In the shoe game, both the tens ratio and the dealer break ratio vary widely within the same shoe, as well as from shoe to shoe and from game to game. We have mentioned that the number of players, the number of decks, the shuffle and elapsed play time all effect the level and type of clumping. A rigid strategy cannot effectively cope with these variable conditions. To accommodate variable conditions we require a variable strategy, a more logical perspective.
BASIC GAME COMPREHENSION: AND YOU THOUGHT YOU KNEW THE RULES. Most players believe they already have sufficient basic game comprehension and may overlook this important point. In reality, few players, including pro PRECISION BLACKJACK players and BS card counters, actually possess a thorough grasp of basic game comprehension This shortcoming will affect the quality of their play and their ability to fully grasp this! I want to list some game fine points to give you a world class perspective on basic game comprehension. Each of you will see some new twists in our interpretation of the rules.
WHAT THE RULES TEACH US.
1 All rules favor the player but one - when you both break you lose.
2 Dealer play is totally mindless - only the player is allowed to think.
3 Players can lose a hand 3 ways but dealers can only lose 2 ways.
PLAYERS - The player loses whenever he:
- Stands short when the dealer makes
- Makes a hand less than the dealer's
- Makes a hand less than the player's
- Breaks when the player doesn't
- Standing short is betting the dealer will break - nothing more.
- Hitting a stiff is betting the dealer won't break - nothing more.
- Whenever you stand short you lose - unless the dealer breaks.
- Dealer breaking varies widely from an average of about 1 in 5.
- The dealer break frequency tends to remain constant in a game.
- It is foolish to stand short more often than the dealer is breaking.
- The dealer cannot break on low cards of 1 through 5. 1
- The dealer cannot break with all high cards.
- Forecasting dealer breaks offers our biggest gain potential.
- Doubling is betting a single hit card will beat the dealer.
- Insurance is betting the hole card is a 10 - nothing more.
- The hole card is low just as often as it is high.
- To break even on surrender we must be right 75%.
- Splitting is merely deciding what hand we prefer to start with.
- A dealer strategy player is only giving the house 2% odds.
- You decide when and where to play, when to stop, how much to bet, when to double, split, insure, or surrender and how much to tip.
- The dealer makes no decisions.
- Betting is the art of predicting which hands we are most likely to win.
- Predicting winning hands is the art of forecasting dealer breaks.
- Forecasting dealer breaks is an art of Precision Blackjack.
THE RISE AND FALL OF BASIC STRATEGY AND CARD COUNTING
Basic Strategy was the first mathematical system developed for Blackjack. However, it is almost 40 years old and was based on the premise of a SINGLE deck of cards and a RANDOM shuffle. Also, card counting, almost 35 years old, used these premises as well as assuming that the game would be dealt to the BOTTOM of the deck. Both of these systems are static, or 100% mechanical, with NO FLEXIBILITY WHATSOEVER.
In 1982, Atlantic City casinos lost a very important court case in which they were no longer allowed to bar skilled Blackjack players. So the casinos hired consultants to figure out how to subvert the game to defeat the Basic Strategy players and card counters. Because these two systems are static, it didn't take the consultants long to find a way to beat them. The first thing casinos did was add multiple decks to the game. This created wider swings in the count due to increased card clumping as a result of a non-random shuffle. How many big bets have you lost in high counts? The second thing they did was to move up the cut card to reduce the counters' advantage. Sure, there might be an excess of tens left, but the counter has no way of knowing if they are behind the cut card or not. Third, they began to pick up the cards and put them into the discard tray immediately after a player would break rather than leave them on the table until the end of the round. This created what we call "Break-Card Clumping." In general, the cards left on the table would be two-card twenties or nine-teens, thus creating "high-card clumps." The reverse would automatically happen as well. Usually the breaking hands would contain a strong majority of low cards, which would be stacked in the discard tray right on top of each other. Then the twenties and nine-teens left would be put on top of the breaking hands, creating a low-card clump followed by a high card clump. At this point, you may agree with everything we've said, but your next question is, "Wouldn't the shuffle break up these clumps?" NO!!! Read on.
A Harvard Mathematician did a study on shuffling and concluded that it takes seven shuffles to approach randomness with a single deck of cards. So if your casino is using eight decks, the cards would have to be shuffled 7x7x7x7x7x7x7x7 times to achieve this. That is a very big number! It would take years to shuffle at this rate. The point is that the cards are NOT randomized as believed by most people. All this led to the most damaging change - the reduction of the dealer break ratio, which according to the old math was 28%, or 1 out of 3.5 hands. When was the last time YOU saw the dealer break like this on average? Anyone who plays the multi-deck game on a regular basis KNOWS this to be TOTALLY UNREALISTIC! 15 - 20% is much more like it. Basic Strategy relies on this 28% ratio exclusively to make everything work. When this ratio breaks down, Basic Strategy breaks down with it. How does this happen???
Because of the Low and High - card Clumping! First, with low cards clumping together, it is impossible for the dealer to break. The dealer must hit to seventeen and if low cards are coming out, guess what? This is where you see those all - too- common five, six, and seven card nine-teens, twenties, and twenty-ones that the dealer seems to miraculously mass - produce to beat you again and again. Since Basic Strategy tells you to stand with your stiff hand against an up card of 2-6, you are losing far too many of these hands when low cards are running. If the dealer can't break here, neither can you. The cards don't know who is dealing! Second, in high-card clumps the dealer usually ends up with those all-too-common two card twenties. How many times have you received one of these hands with the dealer's Ten up staring you in the face and you got a sick feeling in your stomach because you just KNEW the hole card was a Ten? This is NOT by accident. Remember, high cards favor the player so what the casinos have done is actually removed player favorable cards with NO LOSS to them at all, since a push costs them nothing. This is legalized cheating-just like short decking in the old days, except disguising it!
Now that you are aware of the dirty little tricks the casinos play, what is the answer? By tampering with the natural odds of the game, the casinos have left themselves vulnerable to Flexible Card Play tactics!!!
Here is where Basic Strategy fails - because players never alter their play sooner or later the odds of the game will catch up to them. Remember, the odds favor the house. All the Basic Strategy player can hope for is a "hot run" to bet up into before the house edge catches up with them. Of course we know how often this happens - very rarely. STOP!!! It is time to change your thinking and start playing on a higher level.
I hope you have gained some insight from our seminar. Hope to see you come aboard.